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Tour Survival 2015/16 – Player by Player – March Update

23rd March 2016

Home » Tour Survival 2015/16 – Player by Player – March Update

Attention at the moment is currently focused on the race to qualify for next month’s Betfred World Championship, but a little further down the ranking list the battle for main tour places next season has reached its most critical phase.

Having seen the conclusion of this season’s Kreative Dental Clinic European Tour with the final event in Gdynia, the position is now far clearer in respect of the various routes back onto the tour next season and we can see exactly who will need a strong performance either next week in Beijing or at the crucial World Championship qualifiers to retain their places.

The Links

Click here to view the latest provisional end of season ranking list
Click here to view the latest European Tour Order of Merit (after 6/6 events)
Click here to view the final Asian Tour Order of Merit (after 1/1 events)
Click here to view the prize money schedule for 2015/16

Who Stays on Tour?

This is explained in some detail on my previous article here, but in summary, the following players will retain their professional places for 2016/17:

All players ranked inside the top 64 on the two-year ranking list following the 2016 World Championship
All players ranked outside of the top 64 on the two-year ranking list, who have joined the tour for 2015/16 on the first year of a two-year tour card.
The top eight players ranked on the European Order of Merit, not already qualified as above.
The top two players ranked on the Asian Order of Merit, not already qualified.

Who will finish in the top 64?

Though it remains impossible to say with certainty what the final amount of money required to stay inside the top 64 will be, in 2014 we saw Jimmy White take the 64th and final spot with total prize money of £48,692 across the previous two seasons, while in 2015 the bar rose to £54,582.

With prize money generally having risen in the early rounds of events, but earning opportunities reduced this season by the removal of the Wuxi Classic and Indian Open events from the calendar, I would expect the final amount to perhaps fall somewhere between these two figures.

Importantly, these players will all earn a one-year tour card for the following season, but will retain their prize money earned, rather than start again from zero, as those qualifying on a two-year card by any other means will have to.

Who is on the first year of a two-year card?

Simply put, those players who are safe due to being on the first year of a two-year tour card, are those highlighted in green on the latest provisional end of season rankings page.

For the avoidance of doubt, those players are:

Jamie Cope, Sean O’Sullivan, Chris Wakelin, Martin O’Donnell, Hossein Vafaei Ayouri, Daniel Wells, Sanderson Lam, Ross Muir, Darryl Hill, Michael Wild, Noppon Saengkham, Gareth Allen, Alfie Burden, Fraser Patrick, Allan Taylor, Zhang Yong, James Cahill, Eden Sharav, Jason Weston, Rhys Clark, Duane Jones, Nigel Bond, Sydney Wilson, Vinnie Calabrese, Paul Davison, Jimmy White, Igor Figueiredo, Hamza Akbar, Akani Songsermsawad, Itaro Santos, Hatem Yaseen

What about the rest?

For everybody else, I will consider their prospects individually below, highlighting where they currently stand on the three respective lists (eg provisional end of season ranking list, European Order of Merit and Asian Order of Merit) and trying to summarise how they stand overall.

In the circumstances, while players above could still fall back into the danger zone with a bad run over the coming months, for the purposes of this article I am going to look at this those currently 62nd and below in the latest provisional end of season list.

Oliver Lines

Money list: 62nd – £44,208 (+5,986)

European Tour OOM: 35th – £4,875 (+2,625)

Asian Tour OOM: 65th – £0 (-1,750)

Summary: Already guaranteed to be on the tour next season thanks to his position on the European Order of Merit, the key question now for Oliver Lines is as to whether he will be able to finish the season ranked inside the top 64. As stated above, this is the difference between Lines being able to retain his prize money for ranking purposes and seeing his total reset to zero.

Although still well-placed, with a single win at the World Championship qualifiers likely to be enough to secure his status, it should be noted that Lines is without a win at an event carrying ranking points since the Gibraltar Open back in December.

His gap to 65th place has therefore been eroded from £9,100 to just under £6,000 since January and having failed to qualify for the final stages of the China Open, he will be anxious to get at least one victory under his belt at Ponds Forge.

Stuart Carrington

Money list: 63rd – £42,831 (+4,609)

European Tour OOM: 34th – £5,775 (+3,525)

Asian Tour OOM: N/A

Summary: Carrington’s position is very similar to that of Lines above, with his tour status secure via the European Order of Merit and the crucial matter to be determined of whether he is able to retain his prize money as part of the 64 next season.

Unlike Lines however, Carrington has qualified for the final stages of the China Open, where he will play Judd Trump in Beijing.

Gerard Greene

Money list: 64th – £38,532 (+300)

European Tour OOM: 71st – £1,950 (-375)

Asian Tour OOM: N/A

Summary: Defeat to Kacper Filipiak in the opening round of the Gdynia Open has left Gerard Greene effectively needing to remain inside the world’s top 64 by the end of the season to avoid the prospect of Q School if he is to remain on tour for 2016/17.

Victory against Oliver Brown to qualify for the final stages of the China Open (plays David Gilbert next), has kept him inside the top 64 by just £300 as it stands, with two more opportunities remaining to add to his prize total before the end of the season.

Subject to his result in China however, Greene is likely to be one of the key players to follow during the course of the World Championship qualifiers next month.

Ian Burns

Money list: 65th – £38,222 (-300)

European Tour OOM: 39th – £4,050 (+1,800)

Asian Tour OOM: N/A

Summary: As with Carrington and Lines, Ian Burns has the safety net of his position on the European Order of Merit, from which he would currently qualify from as things stand.

Just £300 behind 64th placed Gerard Greene and having qualified for Beijing however, he will now be desperate to find a few wins during the next month to avoid seeing his prize money total reset to zero.

Craig Steadman

Money list: 66th – £36,399 (-2,133)

European Tour OOM: 84th – £1,050 (-1,275)

Asian Tour OOM: 33rd – £400 (-1,350)

Summary: When I last looked at this battle back in January, Craig Steadman occupied 64th place but a tricky run of form since then has left him needing a result at the World Championship qualifiers if he is to avoid the prospect of Q School in May.

Already out of the China Open, Steadman will require at least one, possibly two or three victories at Ponds Forge if he is to remain on tour.

David Morris

Money list: 67th – £35,633 (-2,899)

European Tour OOM: 84th – £1,050 (-1,275)

Asian Tour OOM: N/A

Summary: Having risen as high as 51st in the rankings 12 months ago, Ireland’s David Morris finds himself needing wins at the World Championship qualifiers if he is to avoid having to come through Q School to remain on tour.

Out of the China Open and not in contention on either the European and Asian lists, like Steadman he is likely to need multiple victories in Sheffield to stay on.

Liam Highfield

Money list: 68th – £34,816 (-3,716)

European Tour OOM: 65th – £2,250 (-75)

Asian Tour OOM: N/A

Summary: In respect of the battle for a place inside the top 64, Highfield’s position is similar to Morris and Steadman above, with multiple victories likely to be required if he is to break into that bracket.

His situation is however complicated by the fact that although he is currently just outside of the eight players who will earn a tour card via the European Order of Merit, there is still a chance that he could earn a spot that way.

This would occur if for example, one of the eight players already in position to earn a tour card via that route, is able to break into the top 64 at the expense of another player below Highfield on the European list.

For example, if Ian Burns were to break into the top 64 at the expense of Gerard Greene, then Highfield would effectively take Greene’s place on tour.

This is a theme to keep a close eye on during the course of the World Championship qualifiers.

Zhang Anda

Money list: 69th – £32,566 (-5,966)

European Tour OOM: 57th – £2,850 (+600)

Asian Tour OOM: 5th – £1,750 (+450)

Summary: Although he is outside of the world’s top 64 as things stand, Zhang Anda is sufficiently high enough on both the European and Asian Orders of Merit to be sure of his place on tour for next season.

As things stand, he would do so via the Asian Order of Merit, due to the last Asian event having taken place prior to the final European event chronologically.

Cao Yupeng

Money list: 70th – £31,575 (-6,957)

European Tour OOM: 99th – £525 (-1,800)

Asian Tour OOM: 33rd – £400 (-1,350)

Summary: For Cao Yupeng only a place inside of the world’s top 64 will do if he is to remain on tour for next season.

Importantly, he is yet to play his first match at the China Open, his scheduled contest with Stuart Bingham having been held over, meaning that he could yet close the gap to the top 64 prior to the trip to Ponds Forge next month.

Defeat to Bingham however will leave him needing to win a minimum of two matches at the World Championship qualifiers to climb into the top 64.

Anthony Hamilton

Money list: 71st – £29,323 (-9,209)

European Tour OOM: 64th – £2,325 (+75)

Asian Tour OOM: N/A

Summary: Struggling for form and results towards the end of 2015, the situation looked to be fairly bleak for former world number 10 Anthony Hamilton in respect of his main tour position. A recent resurgence however has seen him climb up into the final qualifying position via the European Order of Merit, two victories in Gdynia enough to do so.

This does not mean that he is guaranteed to remain on tour, his position being the opposite of Liam Highfield’s mentioned above insofar as he could miss out should a player higher than him on the European list drop outside of the top 64.

For example if either Oliver Lines or Stuart Carrington were to drop outside of the top 64, they would then take Hamilton’s position from the European list.

Again, he must win at least two matches at the World Championship qualifiers, potentially three, if he is to break back into the top 64.

Michael Georgiou

Money list: 72nd – £28,591 (-9,941)

European Tour OOM: 99th – £525 (-1,800)

Asian Tour OOM: 17th – £800 (-950)

Summary: Out of position on both the European and Asian lists, Michael Georgiou must win at least three matches and qualify for the Crucible if he is to break into the top 64 by the end of the season.

Mitchell Mann

Money list: 73rd – £19,816 (-10,991)

European Tour OOM: 45th – £3,675 (+1,425)

Asian Tour OOM: N/A

Summary: Perhaps the biggest winner from the recent Gdynia Open at which he won three matches to reach the last 16, Mitchell Mann has assured himself of a fresh tour card via the European Order of Merit.

If he is to break into the world’s top 64 however he must qualify for the Crucible as it stands, although he has qualified for the venue stages of the China Open where he will play Rory McLeod for the chance to close the gap further before Ponds Forge.

Peter Lines

Money list: 74th – £25,925 (-12,607)

European Tour OOM: 78th – £1,425 (-900)

Asian Tour OOM: 17th – £800 (-950)

Summary: Outside of the qualifying places via the European and Asian Orders of Merit, Peter Lines must at least qualify for the Crucible and potentially progress further if he is to avoid a trip to Q School if he is to remain on tour.

Joel Walker

Money list: 75th – £24,666 (-13,866)

European Tour OOM: 68th – £2,100 (-225)

Asian Tour OOM: N/A

Summary: Sheffield’s Joel Walker must reach the last 16 of the World Championship if he is to break into the top 64 and remain on tour as of right next season.

There is still perhaps also a glimmer of hope via the European Order of Merit, if two players already qualified via that list (for example Ian Burns and Anthony Hamilton), are able to break into the top 64 at the expense of two players who are not. This does look to be a long shot however.

Lee Walker

Money list: 76th – £19,733 (-18,799)

European Tour OOM: 42nd – £3,750 (+1,500)

Asian Tour OOM: N/A

Summary: Looking like he will need to repeat his feat of a Crucible quarter-final back in 1997 if he is to break into the top 64, Lee Walker can at least relax knowing that he has already done enough at European Tour events to be sure of his main tour place for the 2016/17 season.

Scott Donaldson

Money list: 79th – £16,941 (-21,591)

European Tour OOM: 59th – £2,775 (+525)

Asian Tour OOM: 17th – £800 (-950)

Summary: Crucially able to win his opening match at the Gdynia Open, Scott Donaldson looks certain to be on tour next season thanks to his position on the European Order of Merit.

At least a quarter-final at the World Championship is likely to be required (mathematically the last 16 could be enough) if he is to break into the world’s top 64.